RBNZ Holds the OCR at 2.75% in a 4–3 Vote: What It Means for Mortgage Rates

What happened

On 28 October 2026 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75%. The decision wasn't unanimous: it was a 4–3 vote, with three members of the Monetary Policy Committee voting for a 25 basis point increase. Many market watchers had expected a rise, so the hold came as a surprise.

For context, the RBNZ raised the OCR to 2.50% in July and to 2.75% in September, after holding it at 2.25% from November 2025.

What's next

The next decision is on 9 December 2026, which is a Monetary Policy Statement with fresh forecasts and an updated OCR track. Economists at ANZ and ASB have said they expect increases in December and early 2027. That's a forecast, not a certainty, and the RBNZ's decision depends on how the economy and inflation data come in.

What it means for borrowers

The OCR is one input into mortgage rates, but it isn't the only one. Floating and short-term rates tend to respond to the OCR fairly directly. Longer fixed rates are driven more by wholesale interest rates, which move with the market's expectations about where the OCR is heading, not just where it is today.

In practical terms:

• If your fixed term is ending in the next few months, it's worth knowing your options early. Lenders can change their advertised rates without notice.
• If you're comparing fixed terms, remember that rates quoted today reflect what markets expect, so they can move before and after the 9 December announcement.
• If you're thinking about splitting your loan across different terms, that can help spread the risk of refixing everything at one point in time.

Our mortgage rates page shows the latest figures we've recorded, and the repayment calculator lets you see how different rates affect your repayments.

Talk it through

This is general information, not personal advice. If you'd like to talk through what the OCR outlook means for your situation, get in touch with Jeremy.